What is a Black Swan?
A black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
- The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
- The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
- The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
Black Swan In Practice
What happened next was completely unexpected. I started getting almost daily inquiries about WordPress Learning Management Systems from around the world. Now I love WordPress and have built my primary income around building and maintaining websites for clients, so I’m always happy to answer quick questions about WordPress LMS and point people in the right direction.
You see I get a lot of random questions and that’s OK, and I’m happy to help. But I’m also taking on a lot of new clients from these inquiries to help them build out online education focused websites and grow real profitable online businesses around various topics.
If you’re into online business you probably get what I’m saying when it feels like WordPress Learning Management Systems are like more evolved forms of what’s known as a “membership site” or “information product.” I’m happy to now be riding the wave in front of this trend as an entrepreneur over at Organic Life Guru and as a freelance website builder at Badgett Web Design.
This frenetic demand for my services when it comes to WordPress LMS business design, development, and consulting was totally random and unpredictable. I couldn’t be happier though because I love helping people build websites that exist not only as online brochures, but also as the impact and income generating business itself.
Because I have my own WordPress LMS website, it made it easy for me to understand and relate to my LMS clients’ perspectives in ways that other web shops may not.
You see for me, randomly posting blog posts across my websites about whatever I’m excited about is what I call black swan hunting. I’m open to what opportunities may arise as the potential reach of my voice across the internet is unpredictable.
Are You Black Swan Hunting?
What could you start doing on a regular basis that has low risk or opportunity cost and could unexpectedly lead to a large upside?